Profit Confidential Expert Reports: Latest Housing Data Suggest U.S. Economy in 2013 Will Be Too Slow for Housing Market Rebound


New York, NY (PRWEB) November 10, 2012

In a recent Profit Confidential article, lead contributor and financial expert Michael Lombardi reports that, according to recent data from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), the total number of mortgage applications filed in the U.S. fell 12% for the week ending October 19 compared to the week earlier. (Source: Mortgage Bankers Association, October 24, 2012.) Lombardi notes that this lack of appetite for borrowing is just one of many signs that suggest the U.S. housing market is still in poor condition. According to Lombardi, for the housing market to recover, the U.S. economy in 2013 will have to improve significantly, which he doesnt see happening.

Yes, there has been good housing market data flow from some parts, but overall the housing market is still beaten to the ground, says Lombardi. He believes the U.S. economy in 2013 will be worse than people expect.

Lombardi notes that while home prices may have increased a little, the overall market is still in trouble.

In the article Think Theres a Recovery in the Housing Market? Think Again, Lombardi reports that in September, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate in the U.S. fell to the record low of 3.47%, compared to 3.60% in August, according to Freddie Mac. (Source: National Association of Realtors.) But the growth in buyers for homes has not been from homeowners; it has come from investors.

To have a healthy housing market, the people who actually buy the homes need to live in them, reasons Lombardi. However, record-low interest rates are not luring would-be homeowners back into the housing market.

According to the Profit Confidential expert, in order for there to be a healthy recovery for the housing market and the U.S. economy in 2013, several areas will need to see an improvement, including an increase in mortgage lending, an increase in first-time homebuyers, an improvement in existing home sales, a decrease in distressed home sales, and mortgage payments made on time.

A housing market recovery is crucial to an economic recovery for America, but it has to be a real recovery; not investors buying houses to rent them out to tenants, Lombardi concludes, warning that both the housing market and the U.S. economy in 2013 are on the edge.

Profit Confidential, which has been published for over a decade now, has been widely recognized as predicting five major economic events over the past 10 years. In 2002, Profit Confidential started advising its readers to buy gold-related investments when gold traded under $ 300 an ounce. In 2006, it begged its readers to get out of the housing market…before it plunged.

Profit Confidential was among the first (back in late 2006) to predict that the U.S. economy would be in a recession by late 2007. The daily e-letter correctly predicted the crash in the stock market of 2008 and early 2009. And Profit Confidential turned bullish on stocks in March of 2009 and rode the bear market rally from a Dow Jones Industrial Average of 6,440 on March 9, 2009, to 12,876 on May 2, 2011, a gain of 99%.

To see the full article and to learn more about Profit Confidential, visit http://www.profitconfidential.com.

Profit Confidential is Lombardi Publishing Corporations free daily investment e-letter. Written by financial gurus with over 100 years of combined investing experience, Profit Confidential analyzes and comments on the actions of the stock market, precious metals, interest rates, real estate, and the economy. Lombardi Publishing Corporation, founded in 1986, now with over one million customers in 141 countries, is one of the largest consumer information publishers in the world. For more on Lombardi, and to get the popular Profit Confidential e-letter sent to you daily, visit http://www.profitconfidential.com.

Michael Lombardi, MBA, the lead Profit Confidential editorial contributor, has just released his most recent update of Critical Warning Number Six, a breakthrough video with Lombardis current predictions for the U.S. economy, stock market, U.S. dollar, euro, interest rates and inflation. To see the video, visit http://www.profitconfidential.com/critical-warning-number-six.







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Commercial Real Estate Is Beginning To Rebound

Article by Wes McFarland

Commercial Real Estate Is Beginning To Rebound – Real Estate

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The negative indicators in the commercial real estate sector appear to be dissipating. Although the economy has not yet fully recovered to pre-2008 levels, the current environment is much brighter than it was in 2008 and 2009.

The commercial real estate industry has historically been financially supported by commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS). In 2007, a record $ 230 billion dollars in securities were issued to real estate developers. Yet, only $ 3 billion in securities were issued in 2009. But it must be noted that the securities market is beginning to show a rebound in 2010.

As a buyer of commercial properties, the opportunities for profit are widespread… Throughout the country, values have bottomed, introducing a variety of attractive economic opportunities for investors.

There are still many distressed investors, around the country, as commercial real estate default rates increased from 1.6% in 2008, to 3.8% in 2009, and is expected to reach 5.1% in 2010.

Distressed investors and defaulted mortgages will continue to provide an awesome opportunity for more successful real estate investors to find commercial properties worthy of purchase at an attractive price, in various locations around the country.

Investors and banks are starting to return capital investment to the industry, albeit with tighter lending standards and requirements for larger down payments.

Of course, investors are seeking a higher rate of return on their investments, due to the lower interest rates available in the bond market. In other words, if you are willing to pay a little bit higher interest rates to secure investment money, then the money you need is more readily available than it was just a few months ago.

Most banks and investors are not putting their money to rescue distressed properties. Instead, banks and investors are seeking investments that promise a more secure return on their investments.

Banks and investors are financing high-equity loans and offering refinancing deals on high-quality loans as they mature.

The funds currently available in the marketplace may help some borrowers, whose properties have fallen in value, below what is currently owed on the property… But according to Deutsche Bank analyst Richard Parkus, most of the $ 1.4 trillion in mortgages that will mature by 2013 will not qualify for refinancing, unless the borrower is willing to put up more cash to secure the loan.

This reality may spell doom for some smaller investors. However, commercial real estate investors with substantial liquid assets will continue to be in a position to seize upon buying opportunities as they become available, in the next few years.

Despite what may seem like a negative buying market, there are a number of positive economic indicators that signal that the worst is behind us…

For example, Real Capital Analytics shows that commercial real estate prices fell 45% between 2007 and 2009. However, values have edged upwards 6% in the early months of 2010.

Other positive signs include the fact that nearly $ 13.7 billion in commercial real estate loan modifications have been written in the first few months of 2010.

Additionally, Tom Fink of the research firm Trepp has predicted that about $ 25 billion in CMBS will be issued in 2010… As of April 2010, $ 4 billion in CMBS deals had already been completed.

All indicators for 2010 suggest that it will be the beginning of a rebound… But, it is important to note that we are not completely out of the woods yet, but we are much closer today than we have been in the previous two years.

About the Author

Wes McFarland covers the Houston real estate market. He follows the economy and its impact on the Houston commercial real estate market. Local trends are followed from information gathered from the City of Houston, Harris County, Houston MLS, and local agencies encompassed in the Greater Houston Metropolitan Area.

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Wes McFarland



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Wes McFarland covers the Houston real estate market. He follows the economy and its impact on the Houston commercial real estate market. Local trends are followed from information gathered from the City of Houston, Harris County, Houston MLS, and local agencies encompassed in the Greater Houston Metropolitan Area.












Use and distribution of this article is subject to our Publisher Guidelines
whereby the original author’s information and copyright must be included.

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